The situation is very fluid, said George Eliason when last he surfaced on 25 February. Indeed it is. Summarising the situation in the Ukraine is pointless: there's just too much information pouring in all the time.
Rather than attempt that, let's concentrate on a number of cogent assessments from people who should know what they're talking about.
Patrick Armstrong
Patrick Armstrong was an analyst in the Canadian Department of National Defence specialising in the USSR/Russia and a Counsellor in the Canadian Embassy in Moscow 1993-1996. He retired in 2008. “Bernhard” regards him as the best analyst out there.
Here's Patrick Armstrong's latest, published 4 March.
https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-2/
Let's highlight some parts.
First, his overall summary.
“So far the Russian military operation in Ukraine has been a reconnaissance in force preceded by the destruction of the supplies and headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by standoff weapons. The object being to suss out where the Ukrainian forces are, to surround them, to check existing Russian intelligence against reality and, at the same time, destroy known headquarters, air and naval assets, supplies and ammunition depots.”
Now a bit on the pabulum served up by the MSM.
“At the moment they are readying for the next phase. The long column that so obsessed the 'experts' on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: 'You didn't get the hint, so now we have to hit you'.”
An observation.
“The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians know they have complete air superiority. Secondly it is a message to the Ukrainian armed forces that it's over, give up.”
Three Cauldrons
The Russians seem to have created three "cauldrons" (encirclements) in the Ukraine. One is around Mariupol with the Azov Battalion, another is around the UA forces facing Donbass, and a third's been developing east of Kiev. These three can be made into a single "super cauldron".
“The nazis will be exterminated; the ordinary Ukrainian soldier will be allowed to go home. The nightmare question is how many ordinary Ukrainians will be free to choose.”
City Fighting
“The dilemma for the Russians is city fighting”, says Patrick. “Washington can create solitudes far away, but Moscow cannot create them nearby. This greatly complicates their problem when they try to clear the nazis out of Mariupol knowing that the nazis are using the city's people as hostages.”
Grand Strategy
“The impotence of the EU and NATO is clear to everyone (Well, OK, not anyone on CNN, or in the US Congress, or in the halls of power in the West. But they are not the whole world.)”
Collapse
"We are seeing the collapse of post Cold War triumphalism", writes Patrick Armstrong in a stinging summary.
Here it is in full.
“We are seeing the collapse of post Cold War triumphalism, 'end of history', 'unilateralism', and all the rest of it. Reality is biting, and biting hard. All you have to do is watch CNN's parade of talking heads and 'experts' speculating about how crazy Putin is: *they* don't understand, therefore *he* must be nuts. For the West, as it has been, it's over. The confusion, the bullshit, the boasting, the hysteria, the bans: the West has nothing left in the locker. Pour Russian vodka down the toilet, fire a singer and director, change the name of a drink or a salad, ban cats or trees, sanction a Russian plutocrat and steal his yacht, wear a blue and yellow t-shirt. Pathetic. And don't, under any circumstances, allow a Russian outlet to tempt the sheeple with 'disinformation'. Just like the USSR but stupider. And who thought stupider was even possible?”
A few choice words about Putin and judo thinking.
"Judo is about deception and using the opponent's strength against him. Putin, the judoka, has judoed the West into suicide. Put your money in our banks, we can confiscate it; put your assets in our territory, we can steal them; use our money and we can cancel it; put your yacht in our harbour, we can pirate it; put your gold in our vault, we can grab it."
₽
It's always been amazing how westerners think the Ruble exchange rate means anything inside Russia. Russia is a self-sufficient exporting nation. They don't need imports. They can do without their Cartiers and Maseratis for a while.
“What the people in the West do not understand is the ruble is the currency the Russians use inside the country but the price of oil and gas is the Russian currency outside the country. I am astounded at the stupidity: they’re cutting their own throats and destroying their own economies.”
"Russia sits back and laughs", writes Patrick Armstrong. "Fly into space on your own broomstick."
"The world order has changed. Week Two."
Based Grandpa
Andrei Martyanov is another professional military strategist, now living in Seattle. His books are widely known, and he's a joy to watch, described by one commenter as a "based grandpa". This is easier to consume.
Two clips to offer here, one from 2 March, on his zig-zag return from Puerto Rico.
And another from the day after.
Forward Fast
We'll try to offer quick but hopefully cogent summaries in the future. Attempts to find a "landing" to summarise the status quo for the day ultimately fail, so we'll just give you what we think are important things, at that moment, as we see them.