Snake in the Grass

Tucker’s not laughing this time.

Feb 02, 2023

Assumptions

Let's say a plurality of our readership are from the US. OK. So then the message is “you're all screwed”, to quote one Julian Assange.

Now let's say a greater plurality are from the greater West. The message is the same.

What follows is a presentation of 4 or 5 articles and clips with commentary. The one thing we'd ask of you is that you try to realise what's happening around you, either intentionally or inadvertently. You're drawn to pathetically trivial current events and thereby missing the big picture.

It's not often that things like this “congeal” as they have now, which is why we take the time and trouble to disseminate this information. We could wait until the end to state our general advice, but we'll say it now. GTFO. GTFO of the West before the entire shit-show collapses on you.

And this does not mean emigrating to Canada. South America perhaps, but choose wisely in such case. The Global South might be a good move. Just like the Global East. The trick is picking a safe and secure spot.

OK, we'll leave things there. Best of luck.

Pepe & Larry

Pepe is Pepe Escobar, and Larry is Larry Johnson. Actually Larry has stand-in Helmholtz Smith. Whoever that is. Let's supply the link.

What's Next?

https://sonar21.com/whats-next-by-helmholtz-smith/

The question is a good one. We in the West have been waiting forever for Russia to begin their winter offensive. They have at least half a million fully equipped troops parked right outside Ze's door, essentially sending postcards home. Many believed the offensive would begin as soon as the ground froze over, but that freeze happened a long time ago. Putin's not the most aggressive of men - on the contrary - but his people, who more and more back him, are getting itchy, clamouring for him to crush Ze in one fell swoop. So what's going on?

“I don’t know what the Russians are going to do in Ukraine and neither does anyone else outside of their high command”, Smith begins. Oh good to know. “But there sure have been a lot of wrong predictions.” Mostly by the West, by MSNBC, can be assumed.

“I’ve been thinking about why this is so and I have come to the following conclusions”, Smith continues. “By now everybody who is paying attention knows that the Ukraine battlefield is part of a world war in which those who control the US empire are trying to hold onto their dominance. For those outside the NATO propaganda bubble there is general agreement that:”

Russia is winning both in the Ukraine battlefield and the wider theatre.
Time is on Russia’s side.

That's the general assessment, yes.

“The first aim in war is to destroy the enemy’s power and that Russia is doing, especially in the Bakhmut slaughterhouse.”

We'll get to that later. Bakhmut is a transport hub and, yes of late, a slaughterhouse.

“Kiev is determined to stand and fight here and the Russians are quite happy to let them do so.”

The notorious “grind”, yes. “Slowly slowly the Russian forces advance over mountains of Ukrainian bodies.”

“On the bigger war the sanctions that were supposed to have crushed Russia have boomeranged and we have headlines like ‘Inflation in Europe is falling but food prices are rising’ and ‘Hypothermia deaths in England’.”

This is unforgivable. Boris Johnson should be shot.

How about inflation?

“Inflation is falling because demand is falling and demand is falling because businesses are stopping because of the price of fuel.”

Oh.

“No one (except the bubble dwellers in NATO) should be surprised – you sanctioned the biggest energy exporter, biggest grain exporter, and a big exporter of potash, did you expect prices to go down?”

Yes. But when one has someone like Ursula von der Leyen at the helm in Europe...

“The longer this goes on the weaker Russia’s enemies become.”

Yes, and we'll get back to that in a bit, folks. Pax Americana is over. Not a day too soon.

“Russia should keep doing what it’s doing and hold the big force in reserve – no reason to change anything – it's attritting its enemies”, Smith advises - but then:

“But...”

Yes, exactly. A theme worth returning to.

“How crazy will NATO get?”

How crazy? Is Jens Stoltenberg still around?

“Its strategy is a total failure.”

Obviously.

“When even the Economist has to admit Russia ‘did a lot better than expected’ you know it's actually thriving.”

How much of this is the fault of Vicky Nuland and her in-laws? Anyone know?

“The wonder weapons - Bayraktars, Javelins, M777s, HIMARS, Gepards, Patriots, and now tanks - have done nothing but prolong Ukraine's suffering and make Wagner and Akhmat Sila into the best urban fighters in the world. What next?”

That “what next” is key. And has always been. Ask yourself: how did the UK react to the emergence of the new US superpower after WWII? Did they make the waves boil? Or did they accept their new role and slip comfortably into it?

“Can NATO reverse itself? Can it survive another defeat? Or, as Larry wonders, drive straight into the Grand Canyon?”

Given the caliber of idiots in the Beltway, Grand Canyon seems a good bet.

“What new lunacy will it come up with when the tanks fail?”

Ukraine started a year ago with 2,000 tanks. They're getting a few dozen. You know why they asked: Russia destroyed those 2,000 tanks. A simple thing to do. Drone recon, then precise artillery. Zip, boom - gone.

“CNN worries - ‘Think of the propaganda victory for Putin if pictures emerge of disabled US tanks on a Ukrainian battlefield’.”

It's nice when CNN worries.

“I believe that the Russian high command is in a continual decision loop.”

Good bet.

“Every morning it considers whether to continue the present strategy or start the ‘big arrow’ move to bring it to an end before NATO does something irretrievably stupid.”

Sounds about right.

“The Russian high command will keep doing what it's doing and hold back the reserve until it decides that the moment has come to end it. And that's a decision that only it can make based on information that only it can know. So maybe the ‘big arrow’ offensive starts tomorrow or maybe it doesn’t ever need to be started.”

Reference

Just a second to review what good info is available. The Saker and Moon of Alabama should be your starting points.

You can also traipse into Russian territory. Ursula's blockade for Europeans was of course irretrievably stupid, as you'd know if you live in Europe, as she - good dictator that she is - blocked only RT and Sputnik, which are watered-down sites for the western palate. There are a plethora of much more potent sites out there. Ursula knows nothing about them because she's irretrievably stupid.

Names you want to keep in mind include Scott Ritter and Doug Macgregor.

OK. Interlude's over.

Pepe

Here's a piece by Pepe Escobar commenting on the above piece from Larry's site. Pepe has reportedly moved his family to Thailand because he couldn't stand the idiots in the West any longer.

Trials and Tribulations of the Collective West

https://thesaker.is/trials-and-tribulations-of-the-collective-west/

“Sit back, relax, and enjoy a race to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. The only question is who will get there first: the EU, NATO, or both.”

“One may be excused to imagine all sorts of amusement games unrolling at the HQ of the Russian General Staff as The Empire and NATO go literally bonkers. What crazy stunt will they come up with next – short of WWIII?”

That has a lot of us worried, Pepe.

“Here is a delightful put down of NATO’s dementia praecox”, writes Pepe, linking to the above piece from Larry's site.

“Everything so far has failed, from ‘crippling sanctions’ to all sorts of Wunderwaffen, while the whole Global South marvels at the exploits of Wagner PMC - now configured as the planet's top urban fighting machine.”

Yes, Ursula is very proud of herself. A true “SMH” moment every time. That woman is so irretrievably stupid.

“CIA mouthpiece Washington Post duly released how Washington, once again, had the Liver Sausage Chancellor Scholz for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The idea was floated by Secretary of State Tony Blinken: let’s announce we will deliver M1 Abrams to Ukraine in a hazy, unspecified future, thus providing cover for Scholz to release the Leopards now.”

They'll last - count it in hours. Remember: glorious Ukraine started with two thousand. Today they have none.

“Every military analyst with an IQ over room temperature knows all those Leopards will be duly incinerated – or better yet, captured, and dissected by Russian military specialists.”

Those Russian military specialists will have a good time over a Stoli or two, laughing their posteriors off.

“Putin's in an enviable position. He's winning. The cards are on his side. No matter what he does or how - within reason - he plays this out.”

“Rumours in Washington advance that the US ‘strategy’ in Ukraine - extensively detailed by endless think tank reports - had to be adapted. It's not about ‘defeating Russia’ anymore, but providing Kiev with the means to ‘scare’ Russia. The Russian General Staff must be trembling in their boots.”

Exactly. The Russians take threats seriously but the West can't scare them - only make them laugh.

The new RAND report is the latest and it's precisely as Pepe describes it. RAND two years earlier had a plan for destroying Russia. Now they change tune just a little bit.

Wile E Coyote

“Meanwhile, in real life, nearly every possible scenario gamed in Washington and Brussels finishes with NATO like a giant, armoured version of Wile E Coyote plunging to the depths of the Grand Canyon.”

Oh he's so missed, Roadrunner's dear friend and costar!

Big point:

“And that happens even if the much ballyhooed ‘Big Arrow’ Russian offensive starts in a few days or weeks, or never starts at all.”

Putin's in an enviable position. He's winning. The cards are on his side. No matter what he does or how - within reason - he plays this out.

Something the intellectually challenged US administration will never understand:

“Arguably the Russian General Staff has concluded a long time ago there's no point in reducing Ukraine to rubble in a matter of hours - something they could easily accomplish.”

Pepe goes on to look at Iran, something we'll get back to. There's a general feeling of malaise that comes when reflecting that the DC warmongers always choose war over almost anything else. Israel/Iran? Taiwan/China? The US may be a declined superpower, but they still have the ability to fuck things up out of pure spite. That's what seems to motivate a lot of those lowlifes.

Zbig

“When in doubt”, Pepe writes, “just come back to Zbig ‘Grand Chessboard’ Brzezinski.”

Yes. We all remember that amiable chap, don't we? His Mika cohosting Morning Joe? National security adviser to Jimmy Carter, the one POTUS who didn't take his nation to war? Zbigniew published the infamous Grand Chessboard in 1997, and it went on to become a sort of Truman Building 101, affectionately embraced by angels like Victoria Nuland.

“Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and, perhaps, Iran, an 'anti-hegemonic' coalition united not by ideology but by contemporary grievances. It would be reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge once posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc.”

Zbig is Galician. The same stock as Stepan Bandera. Thinks he's aristocratic. Just like Ursula von der Leyen. They're all anathema.

“So sit back, relax, and enjoy a race to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. The only question is who will get there first: the EU, NATO, or both.”

Grand Canyon's a nice place. Colorado River. 550 million years old. That's Arizona. Another nice place. Do visit sometime, but wait a while until the grownups return.

Oh Moon

NATO Continues Its Disarmament

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/nato-continues-its-disarmament.html

Berhhard is some kind of former German military dude. His sitreps are generally widely acclaimed. Here's one with some important data.

Berhhard starts in with France - you know, that 'republic' led by a banker who screws his own nan.

“French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu's announcement that France will send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Kiev is ‘clearly important for the Ukrainians, particularly the Caesar artillery system’, said FRANCE 24 Chief Foreign Editor Robert Parsons.”

OK. They'll be destroyed in minutes, but at least it'll please Brandon.

“France has only 77 Caesar howitzers left. Others though are worse off”, continues Bernhard.

Now Estonia. You know, that Baltic state that holds annual torchlight parades to the glory of Adolf Hitler.

“Estonia will donate all its 155-millimeter howitzers to Ukraine as part of its most extensive military assistance yet.”

“Apart from the howitzers, Tallinn will send thousands of 155-mm artillery shells and hundreds of Karl-Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers.”

Karl-Gustaf? Isn't that a Swedish king? How did the Swedes get mixed up in this shit?

“We know how all that artillery will end”, Bernhard comments wryly.

“Several weeks ago Russia launched a special counter-artillery campaign”, Bernhard expounds.

“In the last seven days Russia claimed to have destroyed a total of 40 truck-pulled howitzers, 32 self-propelled howitzers, 8 Multiple Rocked Launcher Systems / MRLs, 15 counter artillery radars, and 23 local artillery ammunition depots.”

“If you think that the field reports the ministry receives are exaggerating the numbers, which is likely, simply divide them in half. In just one week it was still more than Estonia and France promise to deliver.”

In just one week.

“NATO has disarmed its ground forces and is no longer combat capable.”

There you go.

Gonzalo

Gonzalo needs to scrub up. Seriously.

This one's only 15 minutes long, and it sums up the current situation.

Gonzalo's Remedial

This takes longer, about an hour, but it's well worth it if you're unfamiliar with the situation. Some comments follow. Otherwise this presentation is spot-on. Oh how they lie to you.

Comments

Gonzalo says things begin in the 1990s. Beg to differ. They actually began in 1945 when Allen Dulles implored the Nuremberg judges not to go after the Bandera Nazis. Which in turn led to the US Department of State funding Nazi NGOs in the Ukraine for 45 years. Remember when Victoria Nuland bragged about how she'd sunk 5 billion USD into the Nazis? More of the same. Gonzalo is spot-on in his description of “colour revolutions”.
Catherine the Great took in Crimea in 1783, not 1776. The “1776” is an important date for other reasons.
Call it a stroke of benevolence or luck, but the Crimeans wanted the F out of the Ukraine when Kiev started blasting out that Crimeans were subhuman and needed to be exterminated. They very much pushed their government to organise a referendum on applying for RF membership. And yes, those “little green men” were present to protect them, and those “little green men” were of course Russian military WHO HAD A CONTRACTUAL RIGHT TO BE THERE, as per the lease agreement. In fact the agreement allowed for more military - 25,000 - than they actually had - 16,000. To call this some kind of “Putin plan” is stretching things a bit. The Crimeans were overjoyed (relieved) the referendum went so well. They had celebrations and fireworks displays in the harbour. The clips used to be up on YouTube, can possibly still be there. VIPS - Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity - organised a trip to Crimea just to debunk the rubbish coming out of the West. Sharon Tennison might have been there as well. They made a photo op of their skinny-dip. The propaganda Fake News coming out of DC at the time was batshit - Obama and Vicky Nuland were fuming. The Crimeans, however, were overjoyed: they found their benefits improved overnight, their new RF passports just dropping through their mail slots. They said that it was like “coming home - at last”.

Crimea fell into the sphere of the Ukraine by a fluke. Nikita thought it'd be easier for Kiev to manage things. Back when it was all one country and people (mostly) lived peacefully...

What Next?

What next? What next indeed. See the intro above for an answer. These are things you should be thinking about, contemplating at least. Keep one foot or both feet inside the door, but keep the door open.